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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 37.28-0.6%3:59 PM EST
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To: wanna_bmw who wrote (166196)6/11/2002 4:07:26 PM
From: fingolfen  Read Replies (1) of 186894
 
What will INTC do at $20? Bounce or Breakthrough? I'd like to know people's opinions.

I'm not so concerned about what the stock does in the short term, though falling much below $20 would be a bit depressing. I'm not as concerned simply because I don't have the time or energy to play the dips at this point. I'm really more concerned with the semiconductor outlook as a whole. Real growth (as opposed to "seasonal effects") is not forecast to resume until 2003. Once growth resumes, what happens then? Does Intel return to its historic "flat until news then takeoff and plateau", or not?

If you look at Intel stock for the past 15 years or so, it sits stagnant for months, even years, then takes off. In the late 90's these cycles were vastly compressed. With the current recession, the past two "take off and splits" have been erased, and the stock is once again at ~1998 levels.

As a long-term investor I'm really far more concerned with how Intel is going to look in 2003-4 than whether it drops below $20 in the short term. Intel has always been a stock to hang on to for the inevitable run-up, but in order for me to stay in the stock long, it will need to return to that behavior. There won't be significant movement of the Intel stock until Intel + others have announced a real turnaround in the business and have released profits showing real growth (or news of similar magnitude).
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