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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: maceng2 who wrote (171996)	6/11/2002 10:23:05 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) of 436258

Germany released their trade number earlier today In March the EUR average was 0.875 trade surplus was 11.2 EUR or $9.8 billion In April the EUR average was 0.8850 trade surplus was 9.3 EUR or $8.2 billion It seems that each 0.01 change in EUR lowers around EUR 1.9 billion (for sure this mat is not accurate) but based on this assumption at 0.950 or 0.075 the trade surplus should evaporate. (7.5 x 1.9 = EUR14.25) Also April manufacturing production rose only 0.2% month on month at a time it was expected to rise 0.5% or more. This calculation is not exactly correct as the import of energy is also lower but my point is that EZ trade surplus could be severely hampered. More important is the fact that Feb average of the EUR was round 0.8680 with a low of 0.8651 from a TA point of view short term trend line is at today lows around 0.9410 and more important retracement supports are around 0.9300, 9250, and more important one at 0.9150 BTW also Australia reported 3.5% lower exports during first quarter due to the rise of the AUD. Keep in mind that the AUD was around 0.5 in Q4 2001 and 0.515 in Q1 2001 and now it is 0.57

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