Rydex Total Assets Update for Tuesday, June 11th, 2002:
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Money Market 1.734 BILLION**BULLISH Double Overbought
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Regular Series: (100% Correlation to Index (Nova 150%))
SPX Long - NOVA 208.9 Million**BULLISH Double Oversold
SPX Short- URSA 337.9 Million**BULLISH Double Overbought
NDX Long - OTC 566.6 Million**BULLISH Triple Oversold
Lowest Close Since October 1998
NDX Short- ARKTOS 154.3 Million**BULLISH Double Overbought
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Dynamic Series: (200% correlation to Index)
SPX Long - TITAN 83.7 Million**BULLISH Double Oversold
SPX Short- TEMPEST 243.2 Million**BULLISH Double Overbought
At All Time Highs
NDX Long - VELOCITY 130.7 Million**BULLISH Double Oversold
NDX Short- VENTURE 228.6 Million**BULLISH Double Overbought
Sector Funds:
XAU Precious Metals 72.8 Million**BULLISH Double Oversold
XOI Energy 24.0 Million**BULLISH Double Oversold
OSX Energy Services 23.6 Million**BULLISH Quadruple Oversold
BKX Banking 36.3 Million**BULLISH Double Oversold
BTK Biotech 129.9 Million**BULLISH Quadruple Oversold
New 3 1/2 Year Low
RUT 2000 - MIKROS 32.2 Million**BULLISH Quadruple Oversold
RLX Retail 21.7 Million**BULLISH Double Oversold
Telecommunications 5.2 Million**BULLISH Double Oversold
SOX Electronics 45.8 Million**BULLISH Double Oversold
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The DOW has gone back to test the 21 day 3 1/2% exponential trading band. This band was battle tested only a few days ago and is getting tested again. It survived the last test and I believe it will survive this test. Hold serve and reverse back up.
All major indices are right above/at or below double oversold levels on the 5 day RSI. The XAU closed below double oversold yesterday and reversed and screamed higher today and is now back above oversold levels.
SPX closed right below my death row support band SPX 1,016 -1,018 to close at SPX 1,013.60. I will consider this a one day false break as they sold em with reckless abandon get out at any price into the bell. Like September 21, 2001, this will prove to go down as one of the great bottom tests before the massive launch begins.
I was buried alive in a hole in Rydex the fall of 2001 and still managed to make money by year-end. Now I am in the same predicament let's see if year end results finish positive again.
Regular Series: 100% Long NDX OTC
Dynamic Series: 100% SPX Long TITAN
Best Regards, J.T.
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It seems like only yesterday a comparison to September 21, 2001.
Rydex Total Assets Update for Friday, September 21st, 2001:
Regular Series:
SPX Long - NOVA 164.6 Million**BULLISH New 4 + year low
SPX Short- URSA 296.0 Million**BULLISH Inversion
NDX Long - OTC 686.9 Million**BULLISH - Near 3 Yr LOW
NDX Short- Arktos 111.8 Million**BULLISH
XAU Precious Metals 91.3 Million**BEARISH New 1.5 Year High
Banking 17.4 Million**BULLISH - New 1 year low
Biotech 231.4 Million**BULLISH - New 2 year low
Money Market 1.609 BILLION**BULLISH Double Oversold
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Dynamic Series (200% correlation to Index)
SPX Long - TITAN 38.0 Million**BULLISH - Inversion
SPX Short- TEMPEST 113.0 Million**BULLISH - ALL TIME HIGH
NDX Long - VELOCITY 104.7 Million
NDX Short- VENTURE 111.0 Million**BULLISH - ALL TIME HIGH
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Sometimes, no matter how Bullish sentiment numbers may look,markets have
a way of making new history.Markets can humble anyone at any given time. I ate
my humble pie everday this week.
The counter-trend melt-up begins next week.
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T.G.I.F.: Worst week since '33
Free fall, recovery define day filled with uncertainty
By Kathy Bergen
Tribune staff reporter
September 22, 2001
Nervous investors sent stocks on another bumpy descent Friday, capping the worst week on Wall Street since the Great
Depression.
The markets alternated between virtual free fall and sharp recovery Friday as fears of a prolonged war and a plunge into
recession led to the fourth big sell-off in five days.
Since Wall Street's emotional reopening Monday in the wake of last week's terrorist attacks, the blue-chip Dow Jones
industrial average has posted its biggest single-day and weekly point losses ever as investors tried to come to grips with the
dramatic changes in the political and economic landscape.
For the week, the Dow plunged nearly 1,370 points, or 14.3 percent. The point drop far surpassed the 861.21 record set the
week ending March 16, and the percentage drop was the biggest since July 1933.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index, already battered this year, lost another 16 percent this week, topped off by Friday's
drop of 47.74 points, or 3.2 percent, to 1423.19.
"It's been like the Depression, World War II and the stock market crash in 1987--that's how bad it's been," said Anthony
Kolton, president of Markethistory.com in Chicago.
In fact, in most cases, it was worse. Markethistory.com said this week's fall surpassed several other notable drops, including
14.2 percent in May 1940, when Europe fell to Adolf Hitler; 13.5 percent in early November 1929, in the wake of the Oct. 29
crash; and 13.2 percent the week of the October 1987 crash.
For the post-World War II generations, "this probably was the worst week of our lives, emotionally and financially," said
investment adviser and author Peter J. Tanous, president of Lynx Investment Advisory in Washington, D.C.
Hanging over the market was uncertainty about what the U.S. would do in response to last week's terrorist attacks and
growing apprehension about the economy as the drumbeat of corporate layoffs and earnings warnings continued.
Adding to selling pressure were the quarterly expiration of index futures and index and stock options, known as triple witching,
and traders' unwillingness to hold positions over the weekend in an uncertain time, said Marshall Front, chairman of Front
Barnett Associates in Chicago.
"This overwhelmed the market, and the market fell back," he said.
After taking a 313-point fall in the opening minutes of trading, the Dow surged to a gain of more than 50 points in just over half
an hour after General Electric issued an upbeat earnings outlook. But, almost inevitably, it fell back again.
For the day, the Dow fell 140.40 points, to 8235.81, a loss of 1.7 percent.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 18.74 points, or 1.9 percent, to 965.80, pushing its loss for the week to 11.6 percent.
For the year, the Nasdaq is down 42.4 percent, the Dow is down 23.6 percent and the S&P is off 26.8 percent.
Volume was extremely heavy Friday, with more than 2.3 billion shares traded at the New York Stock Exchange, second only
to the record 2.36 billion shares traded on Monday. In fact, Monday, Wednesday and Friday of this week were the busiest
days in NYSE history.
"In a way, this is a return to rationality," said veteran market historian and author Peter Bernstein, a New York-based
consultant to institutional investors. "Until this week, we were in a bear market that thought it was a bull market ... and what's
happening now, as awful as it appears, is a waking up to the reality that the economy is in trouble and stocks were priced too
high."
Further decline possible
Some observers assert that price-to-earnings ratios are still greater than historical norms, and said major indexes could drop
much more than they have already.
But others caution against trying to guess at a bottom.
"Trying to guess a support level in a down market is a bit like playing volleyball on the Dan Ryan," said Ralph Wanger, chief
investment officer of Liberty Wanger Asset Management in Chicago. "It's sporty, but it's not safe."
Some observers see reasons for optimism.
An easing of the money supply by central banks around the world, spending plans by the U.S. government and strength in the
U.S. banking system are all positives, Bernstein said.
`Ripe for recovery'
As well, "when you see this much bearishness, typically the market is ripe for recovery," Front said. "But you need a catalyst,
and it's difficult to know what that will be."
Eventually, "people will decide to go back to normal life," Wanger said. "In a few months, people will decide they really would
like to take the kids to Disney World."
Amid the gloom Friday, Chicago-based Heller Financial Inc. gained $2.06, or 4.1 percent, to $51.90, after new General
Electric Chief Executive Jeffrey Immelt expressed confidence that GE's plans to buy Heller would succeed.
Copyright © 2001, Chicago Tribune
Regular Series: 100% Long NDX OTC
Dynamic Series: 100% Long SPX TITAN
Best Regards, J.T. |
