Hi Nelson: It is now crystal clear that the specialists have all the intentions to take NMPS (current price $7.375) down below the all important 200-days moving average to create an ultimate panic so that they can accumulate at the bargain basement price. I believe all the long-term investors should re-examine their objectives and make their own decisions according to their investment mentalities. For the short-term traders, adhere to the mental stops and don't fight the tape. As far as my two-bits worth of "insight" is concerned, I offer the following thoughts to share with you:
1. We are in an INVISIBLE short-term bear market! Why invisible? Because the DJIA has effective masked the technical damages suffered by many, many stocks. For examples: The DJIA is only off about 10% from its high, yet many biotech stocks (such as IDPH, CYTC and NMPS) are off by more then 50 % from their highs. In the high tech sectors, it is blood in the street. Hence I label it INVISIBLE. However, for the longer term, we are still in an up trend.
2. At this moment, there is NO alternate investments for US common stock. Gold? Forget it. I offers no yield and the Russians are dumping every time it reaches its upper trading ranges. Real estates? It is so illiquid that is frightening. Internation market? There are more scamp artists overseas than you can imagine. Bond? No comments. You see, there is simply no place other than US stock market to park these BILLIONS of $ coming from IRAs, pension funds and so on. Hence for the longer term, we are still OK.
3. The baby boomers are aging. We need new drugs. We want to cut medical cost. We need non-invasive diagnostics procedures. Hence, for the longer term, biotechs will dominate.
4. Nelson, you are very keen in your earning analysis. No earnings, no negative surprises. The ONLY news from the earning front will be positive. Hence, good earnings are coming.
5. Recent FDA approval and its impact has not been fully exposed by major publications, broker houses and security analysts. Hence, good news have yet to come.
6. NMPS is cheap fundamentally. For a current market market cap. of under $125 millions, it is easily a take-over candidate. This $125 millions are only a drop in the bucket for the big boys. With the FDA recent blessing, and if NMPS stays much longer in this depressed level, I predict that it WILL be acquired by some major players. If I am the management of NMPS, I will be scared because I will soon be out of a job.
7. Technically, it is extremely rare that a stock only makes 2 BIG moves and disappears. Therefore, the odd favors moves number 3, 4 and 5 to continue to complete the Elliott wave.
8. If NMPS is in a genuine bear market (FDA approval notwithstanding), I expect it to bounce back 30 to 40 % of the recent decline. This points to the $11 to $12 area. If NMPS is still in a bull trend, then I expect it to bounce up to recover 50 % of the decline. This call for a price range of $13 to $14. Hence, no matter how you call it, NMPS will rebound. I know that this analysis sounds ridiculous now, but I try my best to ignore the market sentiments, and write what the price/volume actions tell me.
9. Do you really think that BEARS will roam in an election year? Greenspan will not permit it. Clinton will not tolerate it. And above all, Hillary's traders will not condone it.
I know that pessimism now is so thick that you can cut it with a lead pipe. Yet, this is the BEST time to buy, both fundamemtally and technically. Hence I am buying like crazy. Have you ever seen a mad monk shopping in a whore house?
Best wishes.
Note: Roger, I just mailed you three recent articles (2 from the the Journal of Urology and 1 from the International Bladder Symposium). If any of you surfer wants them, I will mail them to you. Just e-mail me your mailing address. Roger, you should call Steve Chubb and voice you opinion. He is very receptive, especially his job is now at stake. |
