RE: Cramer bactracking on gold (vbg)
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thestreet.com
Trade Along With a Pro
By James J. Cramer
06/12/2002 10:03 AM EDT
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It isn't easy to manage money, especially in the market we're in now. The whole time I ran money for a living, people would ask me, "Could you just tell me what you are buying and selling while you are doing it?" Considering that I compounded at 24% after all fees for 14 years, I can't blame people for wanting to look over my shoulder. But that wouldn't have been proper cricket. People were paying me millions of dollars to run their money and they didn't want me giving away my best ideas to those who weren't paying the freight.
At the end of 2000, though, I resolved that I would not run other people's money. I just wanted to run my own. That left me free to tell others what I was doing, without worrying that I was giving away the store to people who weren't partners in my hedge fund. I no longer cared if you looked over my shoulder, or even got a peek into my mind, for that matter, as I made my decisions. In fact, I no longer cared if you bought or sold the stocks that I was about to purchase or sell before I did it.
That's why we created Action Alerts PLUS, a system for emailing you when I am about to make a trade -- letting you in on it before I pull the trigger. I have crafted a portfolio of about 30 stocks and anytime I touch one of them or select a new stock, you know before I act on it. I send you a concise email bulletin before I take action telling you exactly what I am doing, the number of shares I am buying or selling and why I am doing it. You get the heads up faster than in real time! You can also see my exact portfolio of stocks, and how I'm doing with my stock picking.
And I love it. I love communicating the reasons behind my actions. I love explaining the process and giving you my views on the market, especially when it's so tough out there. It's always been my mission to find the bullish action in the market, and right now it's outside tech and telecom, in places like gold and water and markets outside America.
***I have been able to tell readers that I was considering a move into these areas for weeks, and when I pulled the trigger and bought Barrick Gold (ABX:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) *****
and Philadelphia Suburban (PSC:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), readers were right there along with me. And they'll be looking over my shoulder when I decide how to diversify away from American markets.
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...remember when we were discussing that Cramer could/would be a sell signal on Gold (vbg).
Well this "initial" buy into Barrick isn't/wasn't a "sell/exit" signal... but, it probably was a solid "profit taking signal" ...we talked about when he reverses himself - ie: he was one of the biggest poo-poo'rs of GOLD for months of late... that he "virtually begs his guest to sell him" - on air... and you can see it in his bodylanguage - when he tries to get someone else to convince himself on an idea...
Cramers "reversal" on Gold was a classic study in market psychology on a small scale - and in Rev. Jim Bob - of the church of what's happening now's defense; once should always be open to "reversing" oneself... as pride don't make you any money (vbg)~
Anyway - some of us smelled it (his reversal on gold) coming... and this move into Barrick (gag) was it... and he couldn't have fawned over Barricks Oliphant more when he was a guest... entertainment at it's finest.
PS: vis a vie "market timing" - I wonder if the Trading Goddess is taking any heat from Dear Ole Dad-Jimmy-boy on her "bottom" call and moving all that "529" money too soon (vbg)... not a problem if "this" is the bottom .... but at NAZ 800ish and Dow 6750... it will be ~
Cramer is a window into both the mind and the mood of Wall Street insiders... the guy is well connected and is NOT an original thinker when it comes to either Gold, or Oil... so heads up people: when you see Cramer do a "180" on Gold, or Oil... it ususally represents a significant change in market sentiment from insiders that he's picked up on... and his "180" here of late on Gold - was a classic:
"Trade the Traders 101" lesson ~
....I hope everyone here hasn't been shy on banking "some" profits of late (using stops at a minimum) - as while the same positive catalysts for Gold Stocks exist today as did yesterday... we've had 4 significant legs up on the HUI Chart:
siliconinvestor.com
Personally - I'm not dip chasing to any degree here... I'm still holding a decent gold/pm stock position and some physical... but, right here/right now... am only going to replace what I've taken profits on - on a new breakout thru resistance... or on any significant geopolitical/economic news.
...a pause that refreshes is due and thats a good time to sit on profits in cash imho.
PS: owning "some" physical... really does make one sleep better as well... and the physical can be ones last & final LT hedge/holding as well.
OSX is breaking down... as it should.
Slow economies/demand - always trump Geopolitical risk premiums... always have, always will ~
Anyone see Buffet make a freudian slip on his CNBC interview last night ? .... he made a great point on how from middle 60's to the early 80's for nearly 17 years the DOW only posted a 1 point gain... ie: that markets can move in long, broad drawn out cycles - totally divergent from the economy.... his brilliant point was that those that think just because the economy may turn and even turn up STRONGLY; that the market will, or must react positively... are wrong and haven't paid attention to history.
His freudian slip was a comment in reference to - "if the public thinks the markets are going to go up in the next 17 years..."
History is a great teacher... we could very well have a clear and complete economic recovery and still see DOW 6750 to 8500 over the next 5+ years imho... and few other than Buffet, Bill Gross and a couple of others are talking about this reality.
I guess our "buy" signal on the broad market will be the return of this infamous headline:
"The Death of Equities"
...we shall see
PS: If/When Cramer starts going "gonzo" on Gold... run.
;) |
