Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy?

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To: Boplicity who wrote (6017)	6/12/2002 5:20:28 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (2) of 6974

Hey Boplicity! Great to see some old friends here. What I'm looking for is determine if a structural change on macro level has happen in the software sector so as to determine if the sector is experiencing a short term downtrend with the rest of hightech or will the down turn become more lasting like the hardware sector has enter into. By hardware do you mean telecom or PC hardware? PC hardware is a mature business is it not, where telecom is in its infancy and temporarily saturated... if this is what you are asking I think its the latter (the telecom situation) for software- with one extra sour note and that is that the last generation of collaborative internet software (ariba) didn't deliver for customers and cost a bundle so CIOs have a bad taste in their mouth and don't want to deploy new cash, this is temporary though. The prior generation of software- psft,sebl,prgn,the ERPs worked out just fine and did deliver (despite the pain and suffering at implementation). All the startups working on internet collaboration are gone now so its an opportunity for Sebl and others to expand their footprint imo. Contract management is an area like that, new companies were going to do it but they are all gone now. All in all a pretty unprecendented time to invest in software if you pick the leaders who are gaining share and get in low. I like itwo also btw and he has been really clobbered, worse than sebl. Sebl still above his sept lows and most software is lower so I'd pick my entry. Also a new space in supply chain that manugistics created is profit/pricing optimization across your inventory so manu is a favorite of mine, but they don't have the balance sheet for an extended decline. L

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