When the NDX was sawed in half from over 4700 to 2350, everyone and their Uncle jumped up and down and proclaimed a bottom. Then, we witnessed it being slowly sawed in half again from 2350 to 1175, and again, the braintrust (tm) had a myriad of messy public orgasms and declared a bottom was definitely in place this time and there was no way we would head lower, yet the market tanked lower and lower. People were astounded each time the market was halved. So why can't it happen a couple of more times? What has changed? Valuations are at least as high as ever.
FWIW, I actually do think we go higher from here because that is what the braintrust (tm) has apparently decided, at least for a while, but NDX 500 before Christmas of this year would not be surprising to me at all. Would it be to you?
There are WAY WAY WAY too many PCs and tech devices being poured into the market, and no one wants them.
Dell, et al, will soon be begging you to buy their "very best, fully loaded" PCs for 100 bucks, including tons of extra "freebies," and you'll still say "no," unless you're just bored and feel like buying something for the hell of it. They are drowning in their own inventory.
And why should you waste your money to upgrade when products like USB 2 and FireWire, or PCI and Infiniband are still slugging it out? (And screw Intel for playing games by abandoning Infiniband. They will grow to lament this decision.) It's kind of like buying an 8-track player back in the 70s and then realizing you guessed wrong and wasted your damn money when cassettes took over. And we are still faced with the perpetual DVD standards battle, and you and I are the losers again.
Am I wrong?
John |
