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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: Clappy who wrote (53015)6/12/2002 6:50:48 PM
From: elpolvo  Read Replies (1) of 65232
 
clapper-

re: gilder, heinz, dent, JW, et al.

they all have good points, they're all very
intelligent and well studied, and the factors
they study are valid BUT...

they're all subordinate to the BIG PICTURE.

three things to keep at the very top of your
checklist before making investment decisions...

1) stock value always has and always will be based
on PERCEPTION.

2) the stock market is forward looking.

3) if a favorable global business climate for the future
is in doubt - the growth of the economy and the market are
in doubt.

number 3 is the single MOST powerful factor affecting and
effecting PERCEPTION and overpowers any and all other
economic principles.

the outlook for the health of the global business climate
shifted in 2000 -- US leadership took a 180 degree turn
in direction on many things that are very important for a
healthy global business climate.

until i see another 180 degree turn in that regard,
my PERCEPTION is going to be that the chance of strong,
healthy growth in the global business arena is either
SLIM or FAT (choose one).

if and when that changes, then i'll be interested in
all the other subordinate economic indicators (FA and TA).

meanwhile, hold on to yer shorts (underwear or stock
positions -- choose one or both).

-elpolvo
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