Greetings dear Uncle,
Yes, it's treating me well enough. Been waiting for weeks for a breach of the September lows. What we got today was a chart-chaser breach -- of no interest to me.
It's been a while since we spoke at any length, and I fear it will go as we foresaw: many more years of this. The appetite and interest is still there. The HOPE.
Every quarter sees at least two new reasons why this time will be different. The latest was "a new era in the VIX" and "hedge funds are too popular". Oh, and then there was "the new market is in small and mid-caps". Sigh...
I see IPOs picked up in the 1st quarter for $9.2 billion and the issues in question are still moving forward. We are getting our single issue futures and other new derivatives. That's OK, we all know that derivatives are used to reduce risk. -g The CME is going public for God's sake. Yup, that's a sure sign of a bottom forming.
You know me, I'll continue to try and trade it both ways, but inside the very largest timeframe where markets rise over time, is another large cycle and it continues to point down. If we get some fear and capitulation this month, I am a buyer. I favour a rally through the summer, but then it'll be time again to step aside or get short as we start another rinse, one that will be murder for the value stocks and blue chip darlings.
I would prefer to live out my middle years buying the dips, waiting for a grandchild, and working on the boat, but that's not what I foresee. Frankly, I hope I am wrong. Bad things happen in bear markets and this market hasn't priced-in much of it yet I fear.
Say hello to the various assorted Earlies and keep those wings level.
Your nephew, Allan |
