Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host

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To: Kirk © who wrote (16082)	6/13/2002 12:38:27 AM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) of 42834

I would certainly hope that he has learned something useful from the QQQ adventure. When you consider that Brinker stayed fully invested for most of the period from 1982 to 2000, and that being fully invested was not a popular idea in 1982, it would take a lot more than the mistakes he has made so far to give back "all," or even close to "all," the benefit people have gotten. The trouble with saying "market timimg doesn't work," as a blanket statement like that, is that you place yourself in the position of denying the work that Graham and Buffett have done in the very long term. It also begins to sound like a dogma. I know you don't like to think of Graham and Buffett as market timers, but when you consider their success at forecasting long periods of above average and below average market returns, I don't know what else to call it. This is not to say that Graham and Buffett's successes will necessarily rub off on Brinker, since neither of them have found a way to call cyclical trends that I am aware of.

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