I agree with your well thought out post.
However, I'm wondering if markets and economies are meant to
self destruct like this as part of it's natural cycle much
like a wave rises and crashes on a beach. It's energy gets
used up, the white froth disappears and the water returns
to eventually be part of the next wave.
Where overexpansion will always be met with periods of
consolodation no matter what we try to do.
It's all part of the natural ebb and flow or Yin and Yang...
Writers, economists, SI posters, CNBC, and everyone one
else can paint fancy descriptions of what is going on and
apply logical sounding reason to it, but in the end it's
just as basic as breathing. If you take in a lot of air,
you will need to exhale.
The markets, world economics, our behavior patterns, are
all similar.
It's almost like nature helps us pick our leaders.
Slow, even, world wide growth is what is needed, but greed
gets in the way.
Setting world politics aside and trying to apply this to the
shallow talk of investment...
It helps me to realize that chasing the fast money gives a
small percentage odds of winning.
A properly balanced portfolio of stocks, bonds, and other
investment vehicles is the best way to swim in this ocean
for a long time.
Especially with the sharks lurking...
Investment styles of those like Warren Buffet, Jim Rogers, and other
sucessful investors, are beginning to make sense to me.
I've come a long way before actually being able to see this.
Hopefully now that I do see it this way, I will allocate
the proper proportions of what's left of my portfolio, to
safer, longer term growth prospects, leaving myself with a
tiny pittance left over to satisfy, my desire to trade (or
gambling addiction <g> <ng> as one might call it).
As part of this natural cycle, when the market is finished
winding down, I expect there to be a period of where 90% of
traders floating around will be wrung out with a light
choppy (almost considered calm), unpredictable, sideways
moving market as a base develops.
It would seem as that would be the only natural way for the
beginning of the next major cycle.
How this will interpret to the world wide economic cycle,
I'll be interested to see.
Right now it doesn't look very pretty. Hopefully things
won't get too quiet and calm a.k.a. pressing Mother
Nature's restart button.
We'll see...
Naturally,
-Clappy |
