Whew! I wonder what kinds of speeds you're going to get? Right now, I have a Cable Modem, thx to Road Runner, and I love the service. Can you imagine the new age of applications that will be ushered in if we start to see cable install fiber optics everwhere for their customers? That will make video conferencing with relatives on a full screen, rather than a 1 inch by 1 inch screen, a reality! Not to mention all the other goodies we'll get.
BTW, I don't know if you folks remember an article I posted a long time ago about how 2002 was the year that major Hollywood studios and distributors contracts with Blockbuster end. That means they get to renegotiate. Many of them will be making sure they leave some wiggle room in the next round of contracts to allow them to distribute their movies directly to customers via real-time, on-demand cable, so they can keep a larger share of the profits. That doesn't mean the end for Blockbuster, but it does mean that over the next 5 years we are going to see a dramatic change in the way movies are distributed and in how customers preferences for movie delivery change. I suspect, that given the choice, customers would prefer to watch movies using on-demand cable rather than Blockbuster, especially because cable companies have priced on-demand at the same rate as Blockbuster rentals. The only reason why Blockbuster has been winning this race up until now is that Blockbuster has been given the contractual edge. They get movies a few months before cable premium channels and cable on-demand gets them. All that will change with this new round of contract negotiations with Blockbuster. I suspect Hollywood and Cable companies will be pushing hard to get faster access to those movies so they can compete head on with Blockbuster. That way Hollywood gets a larger share of the pie, because distribution costs go down, and Cable gets a larger share of the pie because they get premium movies at the same time Blockbuster gets them. I guarantee you all that if that becomes the case, my family will never visit Blockbuster again. On-demand is the no brainer way to go, given that the cost is the same, but I save time and don't have to remember to take the movie back to avoid late charges.
Now how does this affect Cisco? Well, Cisco sells a lot of cable networking enabling equipment. In addition, video on demand will drive bandwidth usage through the roof. Cisco is the largest and most successful internetworking company. So they will reap the lion's share of the gains from bandwidth demand surge. Everyone is so focused on the telecom service providers to drive spending. Well, don't ignore the cable service providers. My bet is that they are the best positioned to truly deliver on the promises of the internet. We'll see that over the next 5-7 years. |
