Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host

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To: Math Junkie who wrote (16088)	6/13/2002 12:27:08 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) of 42834

They made predictions for market returns. They did not suggest going to cash to wait for a period of better returns. I listened to Jim Jorgensen interview John Bogle right after Brinker said to go to 60:40. A caller asked BOTH of them what they thought of Brinker's prediction. Jorgensen said he thought Brinker was making noise for attention as you can't time the market. Bogle was far more polite and said that he personally thought the returns would revert to the mean and be MUCH lower than many were expecting, as in single digits, but he said he had no idea how they would revert to the mean so he would not try to time it and thus would make no change in investment strategy. I believe this was in Feb 2000 give or take a month. BTW, Brinker didn't stay "mostly invested between 1982 and 2000". Brinker went to 100% cash in 1988 after missing the 30% drop in 1987. He was not fully invested until 1991. He also started his portfolio in 1986 but under performed and restarted them in 1988. Hulbert lists his actual returns year by year going back to 1986 if you care to look (they explain whey he took a Mulligan for the current P1 and P2 in 1988). Kirk

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