Jabil Circuit (JBL) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL)

JBL 218.17

+4.3%

Nov 5 3:59 PM EST

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To: patroller who wrote (6030)	6/13/2002 1:18:16 PM
From: rich evans	of 6317

I hope JBL holds and the rest rise to meet it. But market action on EMS stays weak so we have a long time to bob around IMO.The market response to EMS companies after LU news is particularily frustrating. As CLS and others have said, this is all factored into their guidance as they have worked with customers well in advance and know all the orders and so it is all old news and shouldn't effect their stocks and doesn't effect their guidance. But it does seem that the bullish increase in outsourcing is slow in coming and so far has just replaced the reduction and lower organic business. And with acquisitions now hard to do under the new transitional terms with little PPE this area of growth is also stalled. Hence CLS today and all the others are projecting flat sales for it looks like the rest of the calander year. 2003 is expected to be better in I/T and metro and last mile so says motorola and others but the long haul carrier side remains it seems frozen. Anyway I hope some of the Bear Stearn projections posted by Rosh start materializing but JBL and Flex plans to make money at present run rates infer that flatness is the shape of the world and when it turns is anyones guess. The problem seems to be that although demand is increasing in telecom on the data circuits at a 60 % or so rate, the price and revs for this data keep going down. AVAYA quoted a statistic that data is 60% of volume now with voice 40% but data rev is only 25% and dropping. so how do they make money to fund the capex and pay the bloated debt? Looks like a stalemate right now . Lets hope it doesn't become a checkmate. There is some OPEX(automation) spending going on but as one of my rich friends wife said on her husbands salary ( It's not enough, It's not enough) Rich

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