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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 299.81+2.7%Dec 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: JSLyons who wrote (3510)6/13/2002 3:05:20 PM
From: Return to Sender  Read Replies (1) of 95616
 
From Briefing.com: 2:24PM Alpha shareholders approve merger with Conexant wireless biz (AHAA) 6.75 +0.35: Announces that its stockholders have voted to approve the co's proposed merger with CNXT's wireless communications biz; as previously announced, Skyworks Solutions, Inc. has been selected as the name for the new combined co.

2:22PM Applied Materials said to reaffirm guidance, capex(AMAT) 20.46 -0.24: We are hearing Street talk that AMAT reaffirmed guidance during a Salomon Smith Barney bus tour and said checks with customers confirm capex plans for the full year.

2:21PM Market Volume : Total volume traded is moderate on today's session. The Nasdaq has surpassed the 1.1 billion share mark and is on pace to trade 1.6 to 1.7 billion shares on the day. NYSE volume is also moderate with 968 million total shares traded to this point in the session.

2:11PM Lucent estimates cut by CSFB (LU) 2.86 -0.09: -- Update -- LU's forecast of a 10-15% sequential decline in revs is below CSFB's and consensus forecast of roughly flat. Consequently, CSFB is lowering its FY02 rev est to $13 bln from $14 bln and loss view to ($0.70) from ($0.64). FY03 rev est goes to $13 bln from $14 bln and lost est to ($0.22) from ($0.17).

2:20PM Taiwan Semi (TSM) 14.99 +0.39: Banc of America Securities visited with co today where management expressed comfort in current quarter. Firm thinks Q2 should come in at or slightly above co guidance due to higher utilization and better mix, although co's comment that ASPs in quarter are range-bound leads firm to believe that opportunity for upside would be contained. With its breadth of customer base and customer demand for leading-edge technology for new products, TSM appears to be in good position; however, challenge remains whether co would see same sort of cautious customer sentiments this quarter, as have other players in semi industry....Stock is currently up 2.7%.

1:50PM Semi Equip Stocks : Despite recent pricing pressure, Prudential believes the fundamental long-term outlook for group remains strong; rates valuations as "quite attractive." Firm admits near-term risks exist in end mkt demand but sees several positive drivers (macroeconomic, increasing transistor counts for new devices) that can sustain the order recovery through 2002. Prudential reiterates their Buy rating on AMAT (noting it trades at less than 15x peak year earnings), NVLS, KLAC, LRCX, RTEC, FEIC, KLIC, and TER.

1:34PM Axcelis Tech raises Q2 guidance (ACLS) 10.74 +0.74: Announces that it currently expects to report worldwide rev of $130-$135 mln, net rev of $80-$85 mln, and a loss of $0.03-$0.05 in Q2; previous guidance was for worldwide rev of $110-$120 mln, net rev of$70-$80 mln, and a loss of $0.09-$0.12; co cites stronger than expected shipments for ion implanters and stronger performance from their SEN joint venture in Japan as the primary reasons for this improved performance.

11:59AM CLS: Quarter said to be tracking on target : Hearing from traders that Celestica (CLS 25.70 -0.05) is saying that quarter is on track to meet revenue guidance of $2.1-$2.4 bln (Multex consensus for the qtr is $2.23 bln). CLS is presenting this morning at the Bear Stearns Tech conference. CLS shares have popped $0.90 over the past 15 minutes.

11:26AM QLogic Intraday (QLGC) 42.99 +0.53: -- Technical -- Trading to its best levels of the session, towards near-term resistance at 43.00. On a clean break higher, watch for subsequent overhead at 43.40 and 44.00. The favorable intraday tone would be placed in question on a failure to hold very near-term support at 42.70.

11:19AM KLA-Tencor reiterates guidance -- Reuters (KLAC) 48.90 -0.20: Reuters reports that semiconductor equipment company's CFO told a Bear Stearns Conference crowd that KLAC continues to expect Q4 revs in the $355-$365 mln range and earnings of $0.18-$0.20. "This is the bottom as far as we can see."

10:08AM Microchip Technology (MCHP) 30.00 +1.43: Every now and then, a company comes out with positive comments regarding its operations. Last night, Microchip Technology was among those companies, guiding higher for its fiscal first quarter. Management now sees first quarter earnings of $0.15 per share, modestly higher than the current consensus estimate at $0.14 per share. On the topline, the company expects sales to rise 14% year-over-year and 7.0-7.5% sequentially to $159-$160 million -- prior guidance had been for sequential revenue growth of 6%. Management cited improving market conditions in Serial EEPROMs (Electronically Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory chips) which is expected to generate sequential sales growth approaching double digits. It's worth mentioning that the favorable EEPROM dynamics should also benefit Atmel (ATML), the top worldwide producer of EEPROM, and STMicroelectronics (STM), the number two worldwide producer. Yet it isn't just EEPROM demand driving Microchip's outlook. The company is also experiencing solid growth in its Analog business, which is expected to rise about 20% sequentially. From a technical perspective, the one-year chart on MCHP illustrates its recent relative strength. Note that this morning the shares have edged above their 50-day simple moving average at 29.84. Assuming it can sustain a posture above this level, and perhaps get some help from the broader markets, don't be surprised if it challenges its 52-week high at 33.99 in the very near future. -- Mike Ashbaugh, Briefing.com

9:21AM IBM: positive comments from SG Cowen, UBS (IBM) 74.65: SG Cowen raises est based on recent restructuring actions and currency shifts; sale of HDD biz, estimated job cuts of 10k, sale of microelectronics facilities, and dollar decline should add $0.30 to 2002-03 EPS; increases 2002 est to $4.55 from $4.40 and 2003 to $5.40 from $5.30; says stock looks conspicuously undervalued; price target is $112. Separately, UBS Warburg says that IBM's restructuring actions clearly eliminate businesses that have been a drag on the co's earnings outlook, and that IBM is enhancing its competitiveness to a degree unmatched by any competitor other than HPQ; price target is $120.

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