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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (16096)6/13/2002 10:05:25 PM
From: geode00   of 42834
 
Honestly, I have no idea about Brinker's advice as some of it's good and some of it's outright dangerous. I'm unnerved by several things that he does:

1. He is very stubborn and refuses to acknowledge his mistakes. When things go against him he rails at the market and blames everyone else but himself. His attitude toward the market is astonishingly arrogant. Remember when he actually said that he could move the market by what he said on his radio show?

2. He says repeatedly that if a scenario occurs he will do this and that. When the scenario occurs, he doesn't do it and doesn't explain why.

3. He says repeatedly that people who do this and that are (basically) stupid. Then he does the same thing and doesn't explain why.

4. He says this market is really overvalued and that overvaluation is likely to cause a multidecade bear. However, he says another part of the market is really, really, really expensive but to hold onto it anyway.

5. Some of his advice is out and out amateurish. For someone who has spent decades in investments, I find this inexcusable. I cannot get over the feeling that he's trying his hand at this and that an activity without doing his homework. That's fine as long as he doesn't share it with his customers and uses his own money instead of theirs.

Frankly, he can toss coins and be correct on the next rally or he could run his model and be wrong. I don't think he believes himself or his model and hasn't since January 2000. Hence the switch from MOABO to FIP. I suspect this is because he expected a short, swift bear and recession followed by a new economy bull.

When this scenario didn't come about immediately, I think he got increasingly nervous causing him to do really stupid things to his customers. Now he's compounding his errors by not doing anything at all.

This isn't to say that his next call won't be right but it could just as well be horribly wrong again. Frankly, I can say the same thing about my stock picking dog too.
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