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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks

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To: Lorne Larson who wrote (3453)	6/14/2002 4:51:51 AM
From: Peter W. Panchyshyn	Read Replies (1) of 11633

Fact of the matter is that switching from PWI to just about any other oil and gas trust would have made you money. ---- NOT FACT AT ALL -------- ---- Its all relative to when and at what unit price a person got in at and when he decided to bail out at. If he ended up suffering a loss from getting out of PWI. That loss eats away at any gain he may see by getting into the other trust. And it is also relative to what other trust he decides to switch too. Since you have given a list to choose from lets try AY.UN So just to throw some numbers around. If he suffers a 15% loss on PWI. And then gets a gain of (from your chart) 19.2% on AY. His net from the two is 4.2%. Again from your chart PWI is off of its lows by 18%. If he accumulated more and much more of PWI at those lows. He would be ahead by 13.8%. --- ---- Now lets use some real past trading numbers. L buys 1000 units of PWI at $7 ($7000). He panics and sells out at $5.95 (mid december) at a 15% loss. Leaving him with $5950 from his original $7000. He decides to buy AY which at the time (mid-dec) is $9.70. He buys 613 units of AY ($5950). AY is now at $10.43 ($6398). Now P on the other hand he buys 1000 units of PWI at $7 ($7000). He doesn't panic when PWI falls to $5.95. He watches it for a while and buys 5000 more units at $5.80 ($29000). Bringing his total units to 6000. PWI is now at $6.87. ($41220). Now lets compare the two results. For L and his buying and switching 2 trusts his gain is 6398 - 7000 or -$602 or -8.6%. For P his buying and buying again the same 1 trust on weakness his gain is 41220 - 36000 or +$5220 or +14.5%. P's gain is more than L's gain. --------- ----- Care for another example. L sells PWI at that 15% loss. He has $5950 left from his original $7000. He buys ERF which at the time of the switch ,mid dec ,is $24 which gives him 248 units. ERF is now $26.95 He now has $6681 6681 - 7000 is -$319 or -4.6% Now since we can just reuse P's results from above. P's +14.5% gain is more than L's -4.6% here.------- ----- Lets do another. L sells PWI at that 15% loss. He has $5950 left from his original $7000. He buys NAE which at the time of the switch, mid dec, is $9 which gives him 661 units. NAE is now $9.85. He has $6512 6512-7000 is -$488 or -7.0%. Compare that to P's +14.5% gain. ------- ----- Yet another, L sells PWI at that 15% loss. He has $5950 left from his original $7000. He buys PVE which at the time of the switch , mid dec, is $8.25 which gives him 721 units. PVE is now at $10.60. He has $7645. 7645 - 7000 is +$645 or +9.2%. Compare that to P's +14.5% gain.----- ----- Feel free to correct any errors in the math its getting late------

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