I'll go out on a limb and say that we've hit our interim bottom. Bleeve it or nut, we are within a trading channel still. I just measured the parallel lines on the channel, on my graphics program, and they are exact.
It means we can go a few points lower each day because the channel is still in a downtrend. However, typical of each time we touch the bottom edge of the channel, we should go up a day or two, but next Tues/Wed should be a retest. But the retest should fail.
I think we'll go to 1550 before the retest, dip back for the retest, then head up for a few days, till we near the top of the channel.
Does anyone know who reports the first week of July? Those will likely begin the upward cycle, as stocks often get a period of rise 21 days in advance.
Disclaimer: Of course, so close to the previous bottom, like we were last Sept, means the risk remains very high for terrorist attacks. Let's hope the US Embassy bombing is an isolated thing and not the first in a string.
I won't try to guess the intraday swings here, nor advise any holds over the weekend, due to that risk. But my charts clearly say that's de bottom for now. |
