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Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks

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To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (40650)	6/14/2002 12:25:55 PM
From: Ron McKinnon	Read Replies (3) of 53068

Time for a Smarter Investor? 6/14/02 11:02 AM ET Does a very nasty two-year bear market result in more sophisticated and knowledgable investors who don't easily panic? Does it make it harder to achieve a clear washout and real capitulation since sharp investors are more aware of the phenomenon thus it is more widely expected and discounted? Those are interesting questions that come up quite a bit lately. My first thought is whether long-term investors today are really more sophisticated than two years ago. If they are so sharp why have they been holding on in a market that has been declining for two years? Perhaps they simply have a much higher threshold for pain, which explains why we have seen so few times where the sentiment indicators reached great extremes. If you have been holding stocks for two years you obviously aren't going to get scared out of this market too easily. As a result we seem to get slow, steady erosion rather than big bursts of panic. When we do see some panic there are enough bullish opportunists on the sidelines with cash who rush in and buy and quickly cause a turn back up. It makes for a very tough bottoming process and there is no clear end in sight.

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