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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Bull Market.

RMBS 95.57

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Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (678)	6/14/2002 1:21:24 PM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (2) of 1750

Chip: I too think the current release of fear information is harming the economy and the markets. I would like to see them keep their mouths shut and just get the job done. So that is always a threat. Without going back to my data, I had a significant top in March 2002. I cannot remember the exact date. We are now approaching the opportunity for a significant bottom for the same reasons. My analysis of NYSE data show we are reaching the pits of pessimism. It includes various ways of looking at the ARMs index components. I don't expect anything spectacular. This will be a market dominated by the fund managers who are still breathing. As individuals leave the market, there are fewer players. I expect something similar to the 1972 bull market. P/Es of 70 to 100 for selected large perceived "growth" companies that have real profits. The secondary averages will underperform. I just hope today ends badly to add to the pessimism. By the way, keep your eyes on large techs as the market makes theses little recovery moves during these days. If the last week's activity continues, you will see them recover first.

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