Amadeus & everyone else: I view longterm index charts regularly. In fact, AH I've been poring over a ton of stuff. Here's my take, and I feel compelled to say it even louder than when I warned in April 2000, the day before all hell broke loose:
Projecting to where my newfound channel can take us in July (if it holds), it's certain that the Sept bottom gets a full retest on the next channelbottom hunt. That could happen next week or next month. And if we break the Sept bottom, it's certain we break the 1998 bottom of 1357 and head to the next valley (Can't chart exactly that far back but looks like it's around April/May 97 and about 1230): bigcharts.marketwatch.com
Assuming we do we'll be facing another retest next April, taking us to test the 96 valley. My NASDy target then would be 995.
NASDAQ's chart is too similar to the Dow in 29-33 to make me comfortable with any longterm tech investments. As I view the dollar chart, which has a head & shoulders: stockcharts.com[g,a]maclnnay[d19900101,20020604][p][J4522095,Y]&pref=G (in 96 it was about 86) and the world scene (war drums pounding/boomers retiring/China playing against India & Israel) I'd say there's better odds playing gold to $625/oz by next Spring.... and over $400 this summer.
Right now, I think Monday brings a 1559 high and I'll look for cheap gold at that peak. (I recommend GG and RIC)http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={F65B3F5B-4C90-4038-8FD0-4AA1726CBF6B}&symb=KRY&sid=42539&siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
It's quite possible we'll trade higher by Wed or Friday, but I can't be certain with the way the market has acted lately.
In short, I'm not confident in my newfound channel as yet; I think the Central Banks are trying to buy the gold they're short, and we're due for another spike which could come in 1 to 6 weeks.
Why am I going through this now? Simple. I see so many parallels to April 2000 that I'm ENORMOUSLY uneasy here. I think Monday, Wednesday or Friday of next week is the final time to get out of every equity and to buy golddiggers long. Or short the others. The dip won't be as fast or severe as April 2000 but I expect by mid-to-end-July, you'll find more pain than you wanted.
This means, yeah, it's time to determine whether it makes more sense to take the penalties on retirement accounts and such. Figure on a 16% drop in tech fairly soon and another 16% next Spring, and compare that to any penalties. Add into it what you could earn if you invest it in gold, which I already noted will - if I've calculated right - be around $625 next April/May.
Go ahead, call me Chicken Little. I've been a nervous Nelly for 3 weeks now, after all. I want to be wrong. But the signs are as visible as they were then, and I was warning of the April2000 crash in Feb2000 to my newsletter group.
If we gap down Monday, abandon the longs and go for the gold. My gut tells me the most likely exit will be Friday at the close. My second choice is Monday at the close, or if we hit 1550-1560. My third choice, if we gap down early, is Monday in the first hour.
Please spare yourself a lot of pain, if you're heavily long in any account.
I wish all of you well.
-Kevin Hayden |
