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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 312.18

-0.2%

Dec 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: scott_jiminez who wrote (3517)	6/15/2002 9:19:40 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 95541

Hi Scott, Many of us expected this decline ,as it has historically ocurred during at least the last 2 semi equip ctcle troughs. Message 17392581 It has been (in time - # days) a longer decline 41 days so far past cycles were 33 and 36 days. The % decline is also a bit steeper from recent highs. In past cycle declines ,the news media overfocussed on only the negative - much like now. I believe the intent of this news focus is to create the durability questions of this new revival. After being pelted by negetive for almost two months your emotions are a normal reaction.I can't predict the future-but I can say it felt the same in the last two cycles and they both turned around to be extremely profitable. Hold with confidence this next earnings announcement wave has to do two things and the next upleg will be alive and well: Get leading semi equip tech stocks marginally into the black while growing a backlog.Once profitable and with successful products that are being ordered in growing quantities - this sector will then grow earnings and multiples. At least it has in the past and my money is on it repeating again. It just doesn't look like it now - too much news noise. Bob

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