I looked at a bunch of charts about a week ago on gold and they all looked like internet stocks at the end of 2000<g>.
Perhaps, but I contend they look more like the NAZ in 97. IOW, you ain't seen nothin yet.
Of course gold bugs are squaring off against the biggest of the big money and I do not expect big money to concede lightly. But the longer POG hangs around the 320 mark, the more uncomfortable they get.
I'm expecting a heavy smear campaign dissing gold as nothing more than jewelry metal.
And they are correct insofar as they can keep the global economy afloat while we work our way through the fat.*
If they win, POG will be at $250/270 this time next year. If they lose, I expect by spring '03 to see $500/600 at least.
Furthermore, when/if the(big money) does concede it will likely happen very quickly with such ferocity that some miners will appreciate three to 10 fold in a matter of a few weeks maximum- this, on top of already sizable gains. That will be the biggest push. Afterwards, We'll likely see one final push which will be the late comers trying to buy up anything remotely related to gold. Ideally I plan on beginning my exit program on the second to last push. The last push is where I will be selling short.
P.S> I have no time frame(or POG top value) for such a scenario(or the duration of a sustainable gold rally), rather I plan on being patient. As long as POG remains above 310, time is on my side.
*I don't believe the rise and support of gold is due so much to worldly tensions but big money will try to make everyone believe that is so.. That said(and going on the comp 97 chart notion) I believe we'll see a spike down in gold(as the comp did in 98) that will correlate to a peace treaty in the ME, ousting of Sadam, etc. If at that time world economies are back on their feet, gold will not likely recover. If I'm right though, it should roar back and we will enter the go go year(s) of gold.
Just one persons musings. Everyone has to believe in something, right?
Disclaimer:
I reserve the right to be wrong on some or all my assumptions. After all, I'm just a wharf rat. |
