Hi Jerome,
I'm not sure I'm in agreement with your analysis. Pipeline outfits traditionally have been ho-hum utility plays and the value of the stock based on yield rather than earnings. I think we're heading back toward that sort of environment, now that power trading has been shown to be a charlatan's casino racket.
So, what does DYN yield? $0.30 per annum. Figure some risk so the astute investor will discount this yield to two bits. Then assume that said investor is scared by the sector and demands the same sort of ROI as he can get in a Baa3 issue, somewhere around a 10% yield. Based on that, a prudent man would give $2.50/share for this battered POS.
Re: as a sideline watch TYC....If TYC continues the stock price recovery
I don't think you understand the dynamics of rollups. If you go back to the '60's, the last time these monsters were allowed to happen, they all imploded and few survived. They're based on forward momentum, with each deal setting the stage for the next one. Once this game of musical chairs is brought to a halt, and the financiers and the public markets gain some semblance of critical thinking, the party is over. As in the game of musical chairs, the equity holder is the terminal fool in this game, everyone else has cashed out, found their chair on the sidelines and is mirthfully watching the remaining fools twist in the wind which becomes ever thinner as the oxygen is removed from the corpse. Tyco is dead. Only the morons who are still bidding on Enron stock don't seem to get it. |
