today's commentary
chartwerx.com
update for 6-16-02
bank index failed at it's apex and proceeded down to test our target line in the low 800s. macd's as being knee'd in the last commentary still remain unsupportive of this move down. 840-47 should be a resistance area, consisting of an attempt to recover the daily uptrend line, and accelerated downtrendline on the intraday which will intersect the fibonacci levels around late afternoon monday. next resistance would be the low 860s. on intraday1 ( chartwerx.com ) you can also see this as an attempt to recover a low end channel. lower than the 825 area may see selling as a failed attempt to recover which may result in a retest of the 800s again. next level below would be about 775.
the biotechs have managed to remain near the 1.27 fibonacci level and moved off our purple target line on the daily. rsi, macd knee's in place. again, this could be a 5wave pattern completion. the accelerated trendline on the 60min has been broken and is currently in the mid to low 330s. our second acceleration line has moved from the 370s to about 365 on the open. 375 looks like a horizontal resistance. 20ma support on the sixty has moved into the 345-48 area with a double bottom support now at 327. currently testing the 50movavg on the 60min.
the dj65 put in a long tail to maintain the 2770 fibonacci support by the close. higher lows on the rsi's mentioned in the last commentary have not been broken yet. 2800 is accelerated resistance.various resistances in the 2840-50 area. a break below 2750 would likely indicate a test of the low is at hand around 2721, next fib support at 2690.
for the compq, upon failure of the horizontal box we mentioned in the last commentary we had our next box set up as 1437 and we nearly made it there in one day. measuring the move from 1475 to 1525 on an intraday basis, the low measured to a perfect 1.62 at 1447. on intraday2 you can see a couple of additional fibonacci measures that came into play near friday's lows as well perhaps creating a "cluster", then we bounced back up to retest the 1.27 level mentioned in the last commentary around 1507. over 1507 additional resistances will exist now at 1525 and 1550-60. a break below the 1437 box indicates a test of sept lows at 1388. attempt at some indicator divergences tonight.
on the indu, the rsi5 continues to hold its diverging uptrend here. fibonnaci support at 9365 was broken and recovered. this may be the area of a completed abc pattern, however early in its time horizon. topside resistances from the 60min on intraday3 show 9470s and 9530. then about 9588 in moving average form and an accelerated downtrend line of 9670 by monday close moving to 9620 by wednesday midday . 9400 will be the low end of the channel its recovered by eod monday. 9353-64 seems to be where the 60min activity ties to the daily .50 fib area. and then the low set at 9261. below that 9050.
the ndx broke below the sept low but managed a close above that level on friday. rsi5 remains in the vicinity of its downtrend, while an up day on monday could establish a higher low in the indicator. by midday there should be multiple forms of resistance in the 1133 area on the sixty minute chart. this would be followed by 1155. moving average resistance on the daily will start in the 1180-1200 area. on a break of the sept lows support seems to be in the 925 area.
the russell 2000 broke below the 455 fibonacci level but managed to close above it friday. rsi5 is slightly divergent and has a knee here again. 465-68 should have multiple resistances by the eod monday. next looks like 471-75 and again at the mid 480s. to the downside the 446 low and then 439. below 439 look for 415-20.
the sox low tested our older green trendline as its low and held it as support. big doji stick after a failed piercing line. our fastest intraday downtrendline has been broken and early in the day will carry a value of 420 or less. we noted 426 as the 1.27 fib level of a prior move and closed there on friday. first resistance will come around 437-442. the next acceleration down trendline starts at 460 on the open and moves to 450 by the end of day tuesday. below our 400 level there appears to be weekly support around 388. followed by the sept lows in the 340s.
the spx lost the midpoint of the fork as well as the .78 fibonacci level at 995, but managed to recover the fibonacci. below that the day's low at 981 and then the sept low. long tailed doji as a candle form can sometimes indicate a change of direction, however the last two doji forms have failed since the beginning of june. intraday4 shows the low end channel it has recovered. that value will coincide with the daily fibonacci level at 995 by the eod on monday. the first accelerated trendline starts the day at 1015 and moves to 1009 by monday's close. 1022 as the next potential resistance followed by 1035 as the next accelerated line down also at the end of day monday.
no changes to the transports. 2755 breaks the negative pattern its trading in and friday's low tested the breakdown area at 2634. i found it rather interesting to see that while the $xal shows additional weakness, trucking had a strong weekly performance as reflected in the weekly irl summary . for those new to the site, this can be found in the scanning section of the site, under the weekly/monthly heading. chartwerx.com
the broker index broke below the 408 fib level but closed above it on friday. first topside resistance appears to be in the mid 420s near the open monday. followed by 434-447. 400 as support. possibly 386 as our target line over the next day or two. the next fib level is around 369.
milesov |
