Hi Kap,
You wrote ". However a drop of Y-1929 magnitude will take the DOW to under 1500."
Too bloody right. When financial bubbles burst, one cannot predict with precision how far things will fall. For example, the 1973-1974 bear market was bad, but saw a fall far less than 1929. Off the top of my head I believe it was in the 70% decline range.
That said, the really bad bubbles seem to fall about 90%. That is about how far things fell in 1929. A 90% fall for the DOW would take it to slightly less than 1200. Happily, a 90% decline for Nasdaq only takes it to 500.
Most declines are not so extreme. That's the rub, isn't it? The water is rising. Will this be a one year flood, or a 500 year flood? It's easy to tell after it is over.
If we do have such a huge fall, it will be a once in a lifetime chance to buy stocks. We are already seeing some stocks that appear to be good buys. Why just look at AMD, it is selling for less than book value and a PS of about .9.
OTOH, many stocks still appear expensive to me. One of my favorites to marvel at is EMC. Having declined something like 93% from its high, it is still too expensive for my tastes. EMC's PS is about 2.5 and it is selling for twice book value. If EMC falls another 90%, I'd buy some<G>.
BTW, congrats on surviving the leveraged bond play. That took more guts than I have.
Best Regards,
Mike |
