Pump's daily trading recs, emphasis on short selling Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Pump's daily trading recs, emphasis on short selling

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To: Michail Shadkin who started this subject	6/16/2002 3:57:27 PM
From: Michail Shadkin	Read Replies (2) of 6873

Trading Thoughts for June 17 Friday was an amazing day, the market bounced back hard in the face of much bad news. (consumer confidence # was very bad, numerous large warnings, terrorist attack on US Embassy) Seems like every time there is a large gap down the market comes roaring back to close near unchanged. I took advantage of the huge gap down to cover several NAZ related issues and reshorted a few in the last few hours of the day Friday. What happens next in the market ? Lets look at both sides of the table before I offer my opinion. Bear camp: next 2 weeks are the heart of warnings season and I expect a few bombs. every chart of every index continues to look extremely bearish: saavycharts.com stockwerld.com vtoreport.com bigcharts.marketwatch.com all the trends and trendlines are pointing down. valuations are still a complete joke based on historical basis. consumers might be finally slowing in their spending (sales and confidence #s clearly showed first signs of this) real possibility of a double dip recession. unemployment is high and could get a lot higher. investors have no confidence in wallstreet, analysts or the CEOs (every day more fraudulent cases or questionable accounting are revealed) summer is traditionally a slowdown period for technology. (even more so this year probably) lots of world uncertainty (war and terrorism) FOMC hands are totally tied every small bounce rally is sold into and hard. Bull camp: this will be option expiration week, which tend to be slightly higher on average. month-end and quarter-end are in 2 weeks and we could see some paint. VIX chart finally showing some signs of fear, but still nothing substantial. pw1.netcom.com this weekend after reading many articles and recaps of last week, I noticed a lot more bearishness and fear than in prior weeks/months. (this is a contrary indicator) possible technical oversold bounce (I think this would be more convincing if DOW tested 9000 and NAZ 1400) There are many more reasons for both sides, but above are the major ones. My opinion: There are too many negative forces to allow any decent market bounce and very little catalyst other than a possible oversold bounce. There has been almost zero follow through to any tiny bounce and I don't expect much after Friday's bounce. Monday is likely to see some early small buying, but this will fade fast and hard either Monday afternoon or Tuesday. I think DOW needs to test 9000 and NAZ 1400 before we see a tradable bounce on the long side. Both are very significant support levels and it might even take more than 2 tests to break both levels. Rest assured, they will be both broken, just question of time and patience. I am staying significantly net short until we test these levels or break 1st major resistance at NAZ 1550 (2nd is 1600) (dow is 9500 and 9800) Cover big dips and short all bounces has been working like a charm, at least on market related stocks. Only thing that has worked better is short and go on a long vacation. lol Quarter-end does concern me quite a bit, but I don't think this has as much pull as in the past. Any possible paint wont happen till last 2-3 days of the month anyway. Happy Trading Michail

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