Well, maybe both of you are right? 9-month bottom will be here after options expiration-induced panic/crash, but that bottom will be just a bottom, not the bottom of the bear market. I would not discard the possibility of a new all-time high for the dow, but the broader market (SP500) and the Nasdaq are unlikely make new highs for another 10 years or so... Let's see how low the market goes this time.
Then again, the true value of the SP500 is around 400, based on historical pre-bubble average p/e of 15, but who cares about such things? I think the situation is quite dangerous, and may, in fact, trigger a sharp decline of stocks, bonds, and the dollar. The dollar index decline of 10% in just 3 months is quite sharp, the interest rates are on the rise, and the market is falling. We'll see what happens. I don't think we have seen the true despair of "the bottom". Maybe in Japan. |
