Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: DebtBomb who wrote (79654)	6/17/2002 7:21:37 AM
From: SirRealist	Read Replies (1) of 99280

>>But among economic elites, there's a foreboding that something.....is leading us to we know not where."<< I know where. And I'm not an economic elite. In 1946, the first wave of boomers were born. The first wave will be retiring in 2008. Considering the high cost of health care and the growing demand for it that will occur, there should, in addition to SS, be a strain on Medicare funds. There'll be no budget balancing using these funds, as has been done in the past. And has anyone added up the costs of troops (in Afghanistan/Pakistan/Indonesia/Yemen/etc) and weaponry and bomb detectors and new cabinet depts and radiation tablets and smallpox vaccine and business bailouts & pork, and a pending war on Iraq? Our govt spending is in deep doo-doo, and it has no Arthur Andersen tricks to creatively account its way out. Historically, the overcorrection of a bloated market that crashes is P/E 8. I don't think that's where we're headed. But P/E 10 is reasonable to expect. The DJIA is 9474 with a PE of 25.64. So 61% lower is 3700, within a year. Nearterm, 7200-6700 is more reasonable to expect. 5600 can wait till October.

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