["THEY AINT GETTIN' IT BACK - period"]
- and they didn't.
re: the 20%ish HUI pullback here
Message 17583069
Just my .02 cents & some misc rambling reflections:
I'm @ 15% Gold/Silver stocks and that's my rock bottom "longterm" hold portfolio weighting in this geopolitical & economic environment.
I stuck to my gameplan... sold a bit into the last couple of rallies and got stopped out from a 60% PM portfolio weighting to 15% here.
Per the post I linked back to... my thoughts went back to the last 2 OSX cycles. Once we began to attract some mo-mo players and media attention... it's no longer a high reward/low risk game to chase "any" dips.
Hold, don't fold as long as we're climbing that "Stairway to Heaven" - but, continually raise trailing stops up tightly behind each leg...and when stopped out - ONLY buy into the first penetration thru prior resistance here into new highs - don't chase ANY dips....to any significant degree.
- a nibble here & there, but not full rebuilds imo.
10-15%% exposue here - for those who already banked most of the Gold/Silver run up here; is still one helluva defensive position, with continued upside exposure to all things geopolitical...especially when measured against the broad markets negative returns.
It feels good to have the "Big & Easy Money" from a nice cycle run - in the bank.
And imho - "The Big & Easy" money was just made in PM stocks.
It definitely will NOT be Easy from here on out... and there may, or may not be any "Big" money left either.
In cyclicals - you never know... after any series of 3-4 significant rally legs off the bottom...and when the media picks up on the move and when we get a few naysayers like Cramer jump on the bandwagon... it's not necessarially "over" - but, the "Big & Easy" money game is over.
I like Big and I like Easy.
That's when to make huge, levered portfolio weighted bets....based on the fundamentals.
Mid to late Cycle is when to get technically oriented and to develop a written gameplan vis a vie - stops & strategies.
I'm 8% long, 7 % short, 15% PM's and 70% cash here fwiw....nibbled a bit on the longside (WMB, a bit of TYC). Short some retailers (Dillards), some Mortgage lenders, some tech on a momoneteum trade.
I'm anticipating keeping at least a 40%ish cash reserve for the MOABO (mother of all buying opportunities) - which is DOW 6-7,000 & NAZ 800ish .... and that's still a 50:50 when, not if scenario imho.
If we see it - I load the boat long, lots of options/leaps... if we don't I sit in Cash as a happy Pig.
On each of the last 2 OSX cycles - both in 1998 & 2000; June became the "June Swoon" - and anyone who bought dips, was faced with another, then another and yet another; before things bottomed.
Some of the gold stocks do look tempting here fwiw.
The Kinross merger brings some critical mass & still super POG leverage. I still think NEM see's $40 before this cycle is over etc.
I'm tempted to add just 5-7% here into any further weakness... because we "aint" seen the white's of JPM's eye's and there are rogue waves to the left of them & rogue waves to the right of them... the DOLLAR must and will continue to come down and the environment is ripe for a little LTCM Derivatives Deja-Vu...
But, I will stay true to my mantra to -
Be a Pig...and not a Hog.
Be proud of those retained profits... we got 'em the old fashioned way... we "beat the crowd to the party & we were'n't caught hanging around with our faces in a brown mumbler at last call" (VBG) ~
Don't give it back.
Don't get greedy.
Be patient.
If you want to add back some of what you sold/took profits on, or got stopped out of... buy only 1/3, or 1/2 of what you want to... be disciplined, be cynical, be prepared, be patient... and LOVE CASH ~
CASH IS THE MOTHER OF ALL OPPORTUNITY in this market environment.
PS: ...If you're sitting on sizeable retained profits here...consider re-buying some physical; especially silver if we continue to pullback here.
All I want for Xmas is some sub $4.25is Silver (vbg)....it's going to see $7 within 24 mos imo. |
