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Technology Stocks : Leap Wireless International (LWIN)

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To: A.J. Mullen who wrote (2255)6/18/2002 11:15:58 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) of 2737
 
<If your proposal had legs and all wireless companies did as you suggested, then no one would obtain revenue until all spectrum were filled. Imagine where share prices would be in that case>

Ashley, that's not how it works. Networks aren't built out to cope with the spectrum capacity, they are built to cope with an estimated number of customers using an estimated number of minutes, with expansion planned for later as customer numbers grow.

The base stations are largely built out in the first tranche, but then extra electronics can be installed as customer numbers increase. Extra fill-in sites can be included later too. Or smart antennae installed, or 1xRTT upgrade used to increase capacity. Or other tricks of the trade.

If all wireless companies did as I suggested, there would not be vast bankruptcy leaning over the industry right now and 97% of Americans would have a cellphone, using something like 1000 minutes a month on average, with only half the equipment currently installed, paying a third of the prices currently charged, with profits piled high.

But the roads are clogged [see solution here: Message 17620413 ] while the spectrum is underused.

Water, roads, phone calls, electricity, tomatoes. Auctions are an age-old way of rationing scarce resources, allocating capital, increasing human happiness. The Kremlin/Mao 5 Year Plan approach was tried and given up after a few decades of queues, murder, mayhem and poverty.

True, profits cannot be had for all business types from day one. Some things take time before revenues and profits can be counted.

Chickens for example, should not be counted until hatched. Hatching takes time and hens can get quite thin and hungry before the hatching takes place. Parents of humans get tired, spend years nurturing and going through difficult times, with nary a return on investment. Then, one day, the ugly ducklings are all growed up and turn to beautiful swans. Some things are worth waiting for. Some things require investment with no return for decades.

Mqurice
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