I couldn't agree more, Earlie. I would hasten to add that not only is there a serious problem with excess inventory and excess production, but an overabundance of companies too. I can't imagine any world equity market entering a long term bullish growth phase (save a few periodic "fits and starts" a.k.a. bear market rallies, timed to inflict maximum damage to shorts) until ALL excess is worked off and major consolidation occurs. I'm talking about major consolidation mergers like:
- AT&T, WorldCom, and Sprint and many others
- Intel and AMD
- Merrill, Morgan Stanley, Chase, et al
- JDS Uniphase, Cisco, and Applied Materials
- IBM, Dell, Gateway, and Hewlett Packard
- Sun, Oracle, Linux, and Adobe (to form a real MSFT rival)
- about a gazillion biotech companies
- Coke and Pepsi (eeewww... nevermind, heh)
...and other consolidation events like:
- almost every e-broker folding tent and going home
- 80% of mutual funds closing shop
- Apple folding outright
- Dow Jones kicking MSFT and INTC off the Dow 30
The Japanese had an over-capacity problem once, and look where they are nearly 20 years after their bubble. We're barely 2 years into this nightmare for bulls.
You can use your imagination for more potential merger examples, but I think you get the idea. Any thoughts?
John |
