Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: Gottfried who wrote (81105)	6/18/2002 11:44:59 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) of 99280

You are right, but in all these prior cycles, booking turned up sharply at the bottom and here we had a 10 moths period of "flat" bookings as well. I wonder if you have a graph of the backlog as a function of time (even if for just AMAT), I have a feeling that in prior cycles, billing were delayed to refill the "Pipeline", and here the lengthy period of low bookings might have partially depleted the backlog (relative to normal times?). I am also concerned that billings actually returned to the prior trough level, one would expect that with an industry about 50% or more larger, the bottom would have been higher. The greatest concern I have is that in this cycle, we will not top at or above the prior cycle top, but below, and the prices of some of the stocks do not reflect that at the current point in time. Looking at historical precedent one should have made a case that AMAT and GLAC where "good buys" ( relative to the cycle) a month ago. That surely is not proving to be the case. Maybe this time, things are different. Zeev

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