Hi Tim, RE: "small businesses to upgrade their computers...I argue that a lot of these 400-800 MHz Pentium III-based machines...are doing perfectly well in their intended applications."
Not at our startup. Not at several large companies.
RE: "If it ain't broke, why fix it? "
A frozen capex budget means don't fix what is broke.
RE: "And so the prices keep falling."
Nothing can make someone spend money they refuse to spend until the economy shows better improvements.
RE: "screw_ "much richer Internet experiences...The richness of the Web is in the actual content being served, not the Madison Avenue "sizzle"
The Internet used to be text-based content for technologists. Now the Internet is increasingly becoming more like Madison Avenue for Joe. For a highly intelligent technologist, this trend could be frustrating.
RE: "I don't see broadband as a compelling reason for people to upgrade their computers."
I did. Had to.
RE: "I don't see any compelling killer apps on the horizon."
Maybe because killer apps were the thing of the 90's and killer services are the thing of the future. I watched an outside demo of a new, unreleased service (text-based too), and someone in the audience complained the processor was slow. (I couldn't help but smile.) Unrelated to that example, but also this week, a carrier mentioned the need for more processor power on a Cisco router. The joke these days is, you can get a router off of ebay. But has ebay figured out how to add more chip power to routers?
I really don't see the end of the need for faster processing speed (am not implying you think otherwise.)
RE: "Meanwhile, Intel is building more fabs, wafers are getting bigger, and CPU speeds are increasing."
Small businesses will buy the speed when capex is turned on.
I had already mentioned the college grad student who is waiting for a 2.5Mhz (with assoc high-end memory, bus speed, etc.)
RE: "small businesses, who see little reason to replace their perfectly adequate machines "
I'd have to totally disagree with that.
But I personally see no reason why small businesses would turn capex on until the economy shows stronger signs of improvements, unless it is for a direct cost-savings.
Regards,
Amy J |
