John,
From stuff I've read, there seems to be a lot of demand for advanced process wafer starts (no link, sorry), and little capacity. So the equipment upgrade may reflect more of a shift in demand than an increase in total demand for semiconductors.
Funny the mixed signal that we are getting. Companies like NSM, SSTI in semi's, Jabil in contract manufacturing, are becoming increasingly optimistic. AMD and Intel, Apple are gloomy. If there is a semiconductor recovery it is not lifting all boats. And it's difficult to figure which end product segments are doing well and which are not, some say semi's tied to consumer products are doing the best.
SMH may be a good buy in here somewhere. With a lot of companies "bumping along the bottom", with the equipment guys doing OK, with some companies on the rebound, it may not have a lot of downside. And if/when we get a full blown semiconductor up cycle, SMH could give a real nice return.
I guess we are not quite ready for AMD-RIP. But they better get their act together for Hammer. That intro needs to be near perfect.
John |
