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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (147745)6/19/2002 3:20:58 PM
From: tejek  Read Replies (1) of 1580483
 
Ted, back in April, Intel guided better than seasonality (specifically flat from Q1 to Q2). When this forecast turned out to be too optimistic, Intel guided back down to seasonality, but by then, the market had an itchy finger on the sell trigger.

Ten, this is more than a case of the market having an 'itchy finger'. And this new guidance is more than the typical seasonal drop. As I told Elmer this morning, INTC's margins have slipped dramatically in the past year and are well below the 5 year average. In addition, its burned through $3 billion of its cash in two years. These are direct consequences of their price war with AMD.

As for AMD, their only hope now is to make a desperate climb into servers with Opteron. Desktop Clawhammer is a dead-end path, "mobile" Clawhammer is wishful thinking, and their partnership with UMC will be problematic at best.

INTC's margins would not have slipped if AMD's "only hope is a desperate climb into servers". AMDs' CPUs are competitive with INTC's but both want to gain market share. Because of its bigger size and cash war chest, INTC has the advantage but most likely, there will be a point reached when INTC is threatened with a negative quarter and will be forced to back off.

ted
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