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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 214.990.0%Dec 26 9:30 AM EST
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To: 5dave22 who wrote (82902)6/19/2002 4:19:48 PM
From: PetzRead Replies (1) of 275872
 
<I don't see how AMD will get back above $10 - $11 max until next year.>

It will get above $10-$11 when/if there is a credible (i.e., reasonable volume) intro of Hammer with a reasonable marketing campaign.

There is no doubt that it will be perceived as the "creme de la creme" unless
1. It's delayed past 12/02 when >3 GHz P4's are available (30% probability)
2. No marketing campaign by AMD (30% probability)

I still believe it will be intro'd at reasonable volume in October. A reasonable question is, "Why would AMD sandbag on Hammer dates?"

The answer is that if it was generally assumed that Clawhammer would be introduced in October, the DIY market and even some white box market would dry up totally. Q3 would be worse than Q2 (except for flash, perhaps). With a little hammer sandbagging and more TBred MHz out of Dresden, AMD has a chance for a better Q3 than Q2.

AMD has not been sandbagging on Hammer performance. That is to keep the OEM's buying TBreds until it is available. If TBred is the best that AMD can do, OEMs would question AMD's survivability. But for general consumption, AMD in no way wants the world to think that TBreds, let alone 0.18 XP's, will soon be obsolete.

I think there is a better than 50-50 chance of an October intro, no matter what I hear in the next 3 months.

Petz
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