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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 37.23-0.8%2:21 PM EST
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To: wanna_bmw who wrote (166643)6/19/2002 7:36:45 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd  Read Replies (2) of 186894
 
I don't think we will ever be in a perpetual "flat" state, but I think growth will be substantially lower than what many in this business consider "normal," at least for the immediate and mid terms. (Roughly 2-3 years.)

In the corporate business, here will be a replacement market for those machines that are uneconomic to repair any further, and there will be continued slow penetration of new consumer markets and new markets overseas. Still, I think it's quite possible that growth ends up in the 5% range.

If that turns out to be the case then AMD will most certainly not make it, and Intel will continue to be in a world of hurt, ultimately bottoming out at a more typical "bottom" PE of 8-10. That could put the stock down in the sub-$5 range.

Not saying this will happen, but I think it can happen, and it's one of the scenarios I consider in my ongoing evaluation of the whole sector.

Obviously there are other scenarios. But I wouldn't discount this one completely. Trying to anticipate the worst is a very important part of being successful in business or investing. Many of the problems we're seeing now are because nobody even considered that something bad could happen at all, let alone bothered to think about a "worst case."
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