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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (20041)6/19/2002 7:54:51 PM
From: AC Flyer  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
Thank you for your reasonable and reasoned response, Jay. It is interesting how one economic data set can be interpreted in such radically different ways. This illustrates why it is necessary to deal in probabilities, to allocate assets, to manage risk, to constantly seek out value in order to consistently make money in passive investments. Investing on the basis of being "right" is a dangerous fallacy, as it is outside the bounds of human ability to be consistently "right" (as in "f*ck you - I know I'm right").

So, while I believe that probability is on my side with the optimistic scenario that I have recently outlined, I continue with my passive investment strategy of value-oriented asset allocation (albeit narrow) across various classes of US equities. You are up ~5% for the year with what appears to be an active, hands-on investment style. I am down ~1% with my passive, do next-to-nothing approach. It will be genuinely interesting to compare results at the end of the year!
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