<<more negativity today than last Friday, when the market was lower? >>
I don't really see that. I think if anything I see more resignation, rather than negativity. What's also different is that I don't see anyone but the permabears gloating, and they gloat every day there's red. I don't see bulls saying "it's all over now!" either. The attitude all around is more like "there's gonna be more warnings; things aren't turning around yet; looks like we might go down BUT today didn't break key support."
Also, while this board is contrarian, let's look at what we know -- Shack and AA tried longs and no one here mentioned adding shorts/puts at these levels. In fact, it's been hard to find many bears doing much of anything the past three days other than a few selected shorts and holding onto some long established puts, I think. And that makes me wonder if there's finally gonna be a time where shorts don't buy strongly at support? Either that or Allan and Shack clean up on today's purchases.
Admittedly, I only skim a few SI boards, though I do talk to a fair number of non-SI folks. (They aren't bullish here, it's true, but nor are they suddenly shorting.) Looking at CBOE, the Index only put call ratio was high today (and often is) but despite a morning spike of negativity, there were 150,000 more equity calls bought today than puts (far exceeding the 50K difference on last Friday; a similar tale in index put/call by the way). Is that exceedingly negative on a day when the market DOESN'T turn around (unlike last Friday)? Of course, the VIX and cousins were up strongly (Allan spotted a QQV positive divergence, in fact), so clearly there was some negativity (and there's no way of knowing how much of these readings have to do with frantic buying/selling of June calls and puts).
It's all subjective, and I guess if I weren't such a blowhard I'd've said what MM said: "no."
the talkative freep |
