Eight Technologies That Will Change the World
By: Brad Wieners
Issue: June 2002
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What happens when today's tech trends begin to intersect and feed off one another? They'll spawn new fields of knowledge that will transform everything.
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The Computer You Wear
Biointeractive Materials
The big idea: High-tech sensors for living systems
The challenge: To develop safe, effective control mechanisms
Biologic sensing devices will become small enough to reside on or inside people, animals, and crops. There they can monitor the host's health and even act on problems as they arise.
Some biointeractive materials are already here. The SmartShirt, from New York-based Sensatex, integrates biosensors into the shirt's fabric to monitor vital signs such as heart rate and body temperature and transfer data to a laptop via a wireless transceiver. At the Army-endowed MIT Institute for Soldier Nanotechnology, scientists are developing a "battle suit" that changes color to create camouflage on the fly or indicate exposure to biological or chemical weapons.
Eventually biointeractive materials could find uses inside the body as well. Several companies are preparing to launch clinical trials of nanoscale crystals that bind to form synthetic bone. In a severe fracture, these crystals would be used to create bone screws that become an integral part of the repaired bone.
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Fossil Fuels Go Vegan
Biofuel Production Plants
The big idea: Replacing oil with fuels from genetically engineered crops
The challenge: To increase the yield of biofuel crops, control the environmental strain imposed by biofuel farming, and renovate the fossil-fuel infrastructure
Ethanol, methanol, biodiesel, and other fuels made from agricultural products can reduce emissions and eliminate dependence on foreign oil. Today most biofuel is low-yield ethanol, derived from sugars stored in corn. Similarly, methanol takes almost as much energy to create as it releases when it's burned.
But higher-yielding biofuel crops may create new hazards. Genetically engineered plants could escape to spawn kudzu-like superweeds. Widespread biofuel cultivation could also strain other resources, such as underground aquifers. Today's battles over oil could become tomorrow's water wars.
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Upgrade to a Better Body
Bionics
The big idea: Artificial systems to replace lost or disabled body parts
The challenge: To discover smaller, longer-lasting power supplies and build microchips that can be safely integrated into the body
First-generation bionic devices -- like pacemakers, implantable defibrillators, and hearing aids -- have improved tens of thousands of lives. Next-generation bionics will create sophisticated prosthetic limbs or even artificial organs.
Bionic arms, for example, will be made of flexible, electroconductive plastics that take orders directly from the brain. At the University of New Mexico, researchers have outfitted a skeleton with polymer muscles that enable it to pedal a bicycle. Eventually they hope to create prosthetic hands so nimble that an amputee could learn to type or play the piano. Meanwhile, to meet the power needs of bionic systems, a company called Advanced Bionics is less than two years away from releasing an implantable hearing aid that can be recharged through the skin at night.
The Brain Is the Interface
Cognitronics
The big idea: Computer-aided telekinesis
The challenge: To develop reliable, removable interfaces between computer and brain
The term may be unfamiliar, but cognitronics is a sci-fi staple. Recall the brain-plug interface of Hollywood's The Matrix, which uploads consciousness to computers to make knowledge available to anyone.
Today's efforts to link the brain to computers are primitive. But it can be done. When a patient thinks of trying to move a paralyzed leg, for example, a probe placed in his or her brain can convert the impulse into commands that move a computer cursor.
The first applications of cognitronics will help disabled patients regain basic skills. But as sensors become more sophisticated, computer-aided telekinesis becomes possible. You could turn lights on and off, mute the TV, or drive a car simply by thinking about doing so.
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DNA Gets Personal
Genotyping
The big idea: Classifying people based on their genetics
The challenge: To unlock the secrets of the human genome
Genotyping draws connections between DNA, humanity's genetic source code, and the particulars that make each individual unique. The basic genome -- a blueprint of the DNA that all humans share -- has already been mapped. The trick now is to figure out what each gene actually does. Researchers will then be able to isolate genes that play a role in determining physical traits, longevity, and susceptibility to disease.
But what are fair-use rules for disclosing genetic information? Who will have access to it? The tension between nature and nurture is poised to be reanimated as never before.
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Brute-Force R&D
Combinatorial Science
The big idea: Combining statistical analysis and massive computing power to cut research time
The challenge: To develop tools for managing huge amounts of data
More a scientific method than a discipline, combinatorial research turns conventional science on its head -- instead of using hypotheses to test theories, powerful computers crunch scores of random solutions to identify potential for positive results. As computing power increases, combinatorial science may do for discovery what Excel did for financial services -- rendering complex scenarios at the press of a button.
Any Object, on Demand
Molecular Manufacturing
The big idea: Building complex structures, atom by atom
The challenge: To invent molecular machines that can manipulate atoms like Lego bricks
The goal of molecular manufacturing is as old as alchemy: to build virtually anything from scratch.
Some researchers believe that the best way to initiate molecular manufacturing would be to develop molecule-size assemblers that can crank out copies of themselves. This nano-army of robots would then begin assembling atoms into any material the laws of physics will allow.
Though scientists have positioned individual atoms on a surface, no one has yet come close to assembling them. Still, carbon nanotubes, synthesized from soot, today exhibit many of the dreamed-of properties of molecular-manufactured goods. Their walls are 10 atoms thick, yet the material they are made from is 50 to 100 times stronger than steel.
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Port-a-Nukes
Quantum Nucleonics
The big idea: A portable, safe, nonpolluting source of nuclear power
The challenge: To use the power of quantum nucleonics outside the lab
Quantum nucleonics seeks to tap the energy of atomic nuclei -- the highly charged electromagnetic centers of atoms -- without resorting to fission or fusion. If perfected, it could provide a powerful source of energy that leaves behind no residual radiation.
In quantum nucleonics tests, a sheet of hafnium -- a very rare, very expensive element -- is pumped with energy and bombarded by X-rays. The hafnium atoms then release pulses of energy that amplify the power of the X-rays exponentially.
The Air Force foresees using those X-rays to disable incoming missiles. Quantum nucleonics could also be used in photolithography to etch circuits onto denser, faster microchips.
Don't miss the companion to this piece: Untangling the Future
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