today's commentary
chartwerx.com
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update for 6-19-02, intraday charts are posted as well
the bank index pushed up into the low 870s, slightly exceeding the topside target. currently trading at the 20ma which has come down to meet the .38 fibonnaci level as well as a horizontal on price. rsi5 went overbought while the 14 managed to test the midpoint, while the macd's have justed edged to their topsides. daily supports come in the form of the .50 fib at 845 and recovered trendline around 840. below that possibly 830. topside resistance is the low 870s for the next few days, followed by the 886-88 area.
the btk put together a run back to its 20ma and was sold into. knees on macd from the last commentary have tested the positive side, as we watch to see if shorter than standard versions begin to drag it back down. 375 was our horizontal resistance and the index spent all of one hour on the topside of it. after 375, the next resistance level will come at 390. an acceleration line on the sixty min will move to about 348 by the end of day tomorrow as support. if it falls thru there, a retest of the 327 area is possible.
the dow jones 65 bounced right to our target resistance at 2850 in various forms. so 2850-62 area remains as resistance, while a move up thru it would take us to the upper 2880s. there's some support here on the sixty minute, but not much else i see below this point. if we apply a fib to the bounce, 2792 is a .50 and 2775 the .62, while the .78 may have various supports by friday around 230pm at 2752.
the compq closed back on the 1496 daily box horizontal after briefly breaking resistance at 1560 mentioned in the last commentary. on the sixty min it's closed back below our first acceleration line that started monday at 1525 and has moved into this area. measuring the bounce, 1492 is a .62 level. while daily indicators roll over here, the only saving grace may be that the 60min on this index and many of the others have already demonstrated oversold conditions. additional potential supports 1470 and then the fibonacci cluster area near the lows. to the topside 1507, 1520, 1550 again..
the dow jones 30 managed to penetrate the downtrend line at 9670 but has closed back below it on the 60min chart which we expected late today to be 9620. however, the line carries a value of about 9602 now. 9738 as a new resistance, additionally low 9800s. on the daily a target type line is moving into the 9476 area. 60min low end channel support around 9358 by 130pm tomorrow til about 1030am friday, b4 the lows set at 9260. similiar profile in daily knees while 60min starts out somewhat oversold. in general on the indexes here, in consideration of the two timeframes, is that if buyers don't show, oversold can turn into ugly on the 60, further pulling down daily indicator rollovers. going back to the rsi 5 uptrend on the daily, a turn would have to occur probably before friday as the rsi trendline moves into the mid 30s. a close on a high looks to be required before testing the lows occurs.
1088 is the september low on ndx. doom will rein strong if it fails to hold up here. i've exaggerated the rsi to demonstrate trendlines on them. will watch to see how or if they react. on the sixty we've closed back below the acceleration line down value now around 1106. the 1155 area acted as resistance again as we mentioned in the last commentary. downside supports 1084-88 and then the low at 1055.
the russell 2000 came up to test the 475 area we mentioned as a target and is now closed below it. as with the other indexes these turns are coming in at the 20ma on the daily. below 456 has the potential to test or take out the recent low, next fibonacci being around 438 and 415 on the daily. on the sixty min this shows as a retest of the acceleration down line. the only index so far that has held it. same profiles, daily and 60 as other indexes.
the sox was capped at 460 by the low end channel of gray expanded wedge we've been keeping on the daily. this coincided with movavg resistance as well as intraday resistance. an old acceleration down line will move into the 400 area early tomorrow on the 60min. this will also coincide with the daily thick green line we got the last bounce off of. 388 and 340 further below. if we managed some form of double bottom on the 60min, 440 resistance, 460 again, low 480s.
the spx bounced back to just over the 1035 area we were looking for from the last commentary with a close below it today at 1019. not much downside to lose the middle of the fork again. similiar profile as others with macd pushing to test midpoint while rsi's knee down requiring a higher low. an acceleration down line will move into the 994 area on our 60min by 130pm tomorrow. bounce retraces 1011 and 1004, 980 low and sept low. topsides 1040, 1050, low 1060s.
the one and only bright spot. the transports took out a downtrend line. however, not a strong last half day. still another resistance at 2800 to overcome, above that 2880. hopefully that broken line will act as some form of support now around 2702. below 2630 is a big negative as it retains the overall head and shoulders look to it with multiple shoulders. 2800+ would seem a confirmation the pattern is broken.
on the daily xbd you can see the multiple lines we had coming into this area. the only one it manages to hold onto is the dotted blue one acting as a channel form. support around 420, then a broken acceleration down line around 415 at 130pm intraday tomorrow. next retest of the low around 400. below that we'll see if the target line works. topsides 440, 450, 465.
milesov |
