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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Bilow who wrote (32760)6/20/2002 12:22:32 PM
From: Nadine Carroll  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
I thought you might like den Beste.

I think you are not correctly assessing the Israeli questions. The South Africa parallel does not really fit. The Jews are a majority in Israel, the Hamas et. al. make no bones about wanting to destroy Israel and replace it with a Jew-free Arab state, and the Israelis have basically conceded a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, and are just fighting over the nature of that state.

This makes the moral arguments (which as Tim says, you count and ignore as it suits the moment) a good deal more shifting than the SA example. Since the military argument is a no-contest, the moral arguments, by limiting the actions of the stronger party, do have a strong effect on what happens at the end of the day.

The Palestinians have reverted to maximalism and once again it's likely to cost them dear. They will doubtless achieve some greater escalation -- but every time they do, the Israelis are also 'permitted' a greater counter-escalation. There are many degrees of action between doing nothing and a full ethnic cleansing campaign that would cause the US to dump Israel. For instance, if the Pals succeed with a mega-attack, the Israelis will be 'permitted' to begin clearing out some buffer zones near the new wall. The Palestinians have fewer resources to wait out this contest, and evidence that time is not really on their side may change their minds about the tactic they're using. Judging from the petition that appeared in al Quds today, it is happening already.
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