Tim, Re: "Do you think that the Osborne effect has been significant for AMD this quarter?"
Quite possibly, but more due to Thoroughbred, rather than Clawhammer. The idea of a cooler, faster version of Palomino might have made of buyers "wait" through most of the second quarter, while AMD delayed their launch month after month. This might even include OEMs that intended a less expensive cooling solution, but wanted to wait until AMD could deliver a cooler CPU. The problem with TBred is that it not only disappointed in terms of clock frequency, but that it also disappointed in power requirements, since AMD had to increase the voltage of their high end skus. I think the 1600+ to 1800+ TBreds will sell better once AMD gets them out in volume, but the problem with those is that AMD is getting <$100 prices for them. They are competing with Celeron, rather than with Pentium 4.
Whether or not AMD has a second Osborne due to Barton, or due to Hammer, is questionable. I think that Jozef (or whomever it was) brought up a good point that many K7 users are likely to want to upgrade their K7 systems with Barton later in the year. If AMD gets it out on time, I see K7 being a big Christmas seller. If Barton slips, then AMD will be left with more people "waiting".
Another mistake AMD could make is to paper launch Clawhammer with very low volumes for several months. They would certainly cannibalize their K7 lines, by giving people another reason to "wait" for availability. Their best bet is to delay Hammer until they can produce it with good yields, and in the mean time, try to get Barton out the door!
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