Kelvin,
How many times are we going to discuss the same thing? Quite frankly I'm fed up with it, and if I come across as pissed in this post, it's because I am pissed. When I bought CIEN initially I said that I planned to trade around a core position, and that is exactly what I have done. I already closed four positions in CIEN this year for a gain of $5,010. I have a paper loss in the 3000 shares that I am holding of $13,330, for a total loss so far of $8,320. BFD, man! You've been criticizing my trades and Paul's trades for the better part of this year like you are some sort of stock God. Apparently you forgot that your trades were down a whopping $101,086 last year. Yeah, you are up $8,305 this year, but you have only made 24 trades vs. 60 trades last year. You haven't made a trade in the Z account since April 15, and 18 of your 24 trades were in Jan and Feb before the big draw down occurred in a lot of stocks. My guess is you would have had big losses this year if you had traded more but obviously there's no way to know for sure.
Now let's address CIEN specifically. The issue isn't whether it gets back to $8 where I bought those particular shares. The issue is whether it is better to sell it at 4 or wait for 5 or 6 or ? You are incorrectly assuming that I will hold it until it gets back to where I bought it. That is not a correct assumption. I have given my reasons for holding CIEN. It is trading barely above cash and below book. The stock is trading at a cheaper relative valuation today than it was in 1998, the last time it traded this low. There's no doubt in my mind that it will recover. When? I don't have a clue, but I am not going to sell it below what I think it's worth just because that's the going price today.
<the fact NOTHING in the market was going to make the stock move higher.>
Bulls&it! There is no such FACT. Just because that's the way it turned out doesn't mean that it HAD to end up that way. Sometimes stocks go up after a company releases bad news. During "normal" market conditions, that generally means that the stock had already discounted the news. In a bad market, you can't read it that way because people's emotions are completely out of touch with reality and they dump stocks with absolutely no idea what they are doing or how much the business is worth. So Ciena announced a bad quarter. Big deal. Does that mean that the company is worth less than book value? Do you know what the fundamental value of a business is? One way to value a firm is by summing the discounted expected cash flows from now until infinity. From that perspective, who cares what their cash flows are this quarter or next quarter. The value of the firm should be calculated with infinity in mind, although obviously the nearterm cash flows are worth more when you discount them. CIEN traded more than 10 million shares today and was only down 12 cents. Some very smart people bought the stock today for the long term. Tell me Kelvin, why was the stock only down 12 cents on 10 million shares traded if nobody sees value in it?
<My guess(from my own experience) that when a stock drops soo much...>
You and Joe criticized my trade on ORCL a few weeks ago. I booked a $4600 profit on those shares yesterday. Here's the bottom line. You trade the way you want and I'll trade the way I want. I have been around long enough to know that declines in stocks like CIEN always turn around. The company has a good balance sheet. They are in a good business for the future. Their business will eventually turn around and the stock will come back into favor. When? who knows. In the meantime I will continue to trade around the core position and I'd appreciate if you would quit bugging me about it. I am sorry if I offended you in this post, but I am tired of what appears to by your belittling me and others on this thread.
Thanks,
Dan |
