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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (82767)6/21/2002 11:20:28 AM
From: Earlie  Read Replies (1) of 99280
 
Zeev:

Do you buy into the current government employment numbers and GDP numbers? Both have been held up to serious and well deserved ridicule (no longer "unemployed" if you have fallen off the list because you have run through your unemployment benefits and a GDP that is grotesquely exaggerated by "hedonic pricing" and "chained dollar" calculations?). If you do, or if we agreed to use those numbers to define a depression, then I doubt we would ever make it into a depression, irrespective of actual economic events. (g)

For me, a depression is three things:

- most debt paper gets sent to money heaven.
- deflation crunches both prices and demand.
- unemployment rises to levels that really hurt.

We will know it is here when it arrives, without needing to define it, and we are likely to have an answer either way before the spring.

Best, Earlie
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