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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 40.03-1.3%Dec 1 3:59 PM EST

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To: fingolfen who wrote (166783)6/21/2002 3:31:07 PM
From: tcmay  Read Replies (2) of 186894
 
"Are you suggesting an overcorrection phenomena? "

I don't know if he is, but I sure do suggest that.

We've gone from the peak of the hype, when every news network was running stories about the new riches of the "day traders" (now there's a term one doesn't here much anymore!) and when the Ameritrade guy was being feted at the White House...and when the stock valuations of a no product dot com exceeeded the market value of Northrop Corporation...

...down to where the news networks tell us that "nobody is buying stock" and where the Ameritrade guy has been replaced by the Bowflex guy.

The counterreaction is very similar to what I saw in the early 1970s, when a recession and drop in the Dow caused many folks to shy away from buying stocks for many years. (Written about ably by "Adam Smith" in "The Money Game," "Supermoney," and other books. My father was one of these folks who refused to touch stocks throughout the 1970s and 80s. He also recounted stories of how his friends had lost money in the crash of the late 60s, early 70s.)

And a similar counterreaction happened in 1987, though there the bounce happened so quickly that most folks forgot the Apocalypse Dow events and moved on.

Today the conventional wisdom is that only fools are in the stock market. This is why stocks have collapsed so badly.

(Though the "point and figure" bozos no doubt have their theories. "It was also shown by looking at the head and shoulders formation in Yahoo, divided by the MacClellan Oscillator overlaid with a Fourier transform of the fourth Elliott Wave!")

--Tim May
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