aj, very well put, reflects my characterization of the phase III as "relentless", and we have seen nothing yet, to get another 4 GNT here this week, the Dow could easily have to drop close to 1000 points, and the Naz maybe as much as 150/200. The main problem right now, from an analytical point of view is whether the coming bottom will hold through the end of the year or not (except a very fast, within three to six weeks retest). Some of the "things" I would like to become that optimistic, apart of the quintuple GNT, lows expansion to above 450/500 for two days, volume going to 2.5 B on the Naz and the BPcompq (http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID62594&cmd=show[s766372]&disp=P) going under 30. If we do not get such a combination (and few other components which are a little more complex), we may still have a summer rally starting early in July, but, it will be a false start like the February rally, IMTO. Since I cannot read the future (yet <g>), have to wait for the events this week (a critical week) before I can start and redraw the map for the rest of the year.
Zeev |
