Limtex, I think that your mistake is listening to economists to tell you how the economy will be. I suggest you listen to the market, it knows best. The market participants are all people very close to their own businesses, and they see much better than the economists what is happening in the market place. That is one reason markets often discount economic events a good six months ahead of these events actually happening. Well, mostly, the market has been known to forecast recessions that never happened, meaning, that even if you knew what the economy would do, it still will not be sufficient to predict where stocks will go. You see, we actually never had a recession in the last 30 months (defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP), so why is the Naz down that much? There are such mondaine issues such as liquidity, balance of payments, political uncertainties, consumer and business confidence, budget deficits (and surpluses), market valuation metrics etc that are much more important than the actual performance of the economy influencing the pricing of equities.
Zeev |
