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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 306.28-1.0%Dec 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (3621)6/22/2002 6:29:24 PM
From: Return to Sender  Read Replies (2) of 95525
 
Lets see what really happened on October 8th 1998 and see if we could have seen that as the actual bottom and a real reversal point.

stockcharts.com[l,a]mhclyiay[d19950101,20020622][pb50!b200!d20,2!i!f][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!Ul14!Lp14,3,3!Lf!Lc20!Lah12,26,9]&pref=G

To me it was not clear without the confirmation that came on October 9 by the chart and opening and closing prices alone.

chart.yahoo.com

However by looking at the VIX at the time one could have predicted the bottom on October 8 1998 as it reached 60 on that very day!

chart.yahoo.com

What I am suggesting is that when we see the VIX above 50 again we will definitely see another bottom well worth trading long. Perhaps worth holding long stocks much longer term too! High volume also confirms the turn as Don shows here:

chart.yahoo.com

Thanks for making me dig deeper Don. This information proves we can find the bottom this time around too IMHO.

RtS
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